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You've Got Mail: The Debate Of What Will Happen At 3

Topics include OLB v OL, positional value in draft, and re-signing free agents

David Bailey Mailbag 0303

By the time the mailbag arrives next week, free agency -- the tampering portion at least -- will be full speed ahead. Time flies when you're having fun. This week's mailbag is here, in the meantime. Don't forget to send a question for a future mailbag with at least a first name and last initial.

From Jasper Moyzes:

"Hey Darren. I have two draft comments. Enjoyed your RB piece, so just wanted to say my peace. You don't need to pay out big money for free-agent RBs, nor do you need to spend a first-round pick on a 'generational' running back to win. So long as you have a good O-line, you can succeed with a mid-round RB. Build the OL, build the OL, build the OL. That said, don't reach on OL. There appear to be two blue-chip pass rushers (Bailey and Bain) that will be available to us at No. 3. Fano and Mauigoa are good, but not generational. Bain/Bailey are a tier above any OL in this class. I trust Monti to make the right decision."

Judging by the draft analysts, most seem to lean toward what you say, Jasper, and that is the edge guys rank higher than a Mauigoa or Fano. Part of what clouds this for me at this point is what might be achieved in free agency, which always plays a role in the draft. But I am personally on board with taking a difference-maker at 3 assuming that's how the Cardinals see them, and finding a guy who can get after the QB is always welcome. If I took an offensive lineman there, I would take Mauigoa, and believe that even if he wasn't an All-Pro tackle maybe he could be an All-Pro guard. But these are the decisions that must be made.

From Moe Green:

"Hi Darren. Combine is here as I write this and once again we find ourselves in that age-old debacle: tape vs measurables. Linebackers went today and we discovered 2 things: David Bailey is impossibly athletic for a pass rusher. Reuben Bain Jr. has A.Q. Shipley T-Rex arms. Either could go No. 2 overall and make it moot, but what's your opinion Bailey vs Bain? Bain is the 'proven' guy. Yes his measurables are concerning, but the guy dominated in college. Bailey is the projection guy, the tools guy. There have been many guys who had OK college career, blew up the combine, and went top 10. I guess the prudent thing to do would be to look back at history and see how those guys panned out in the NFL. Some great, some not, so I don't envy Monti."

Every draft pick has an element of risk, right? Marvin Harrison Jr. was a no-brainer in 2024, and while that still can turn into a great pick, the Cardinals need to see more. This draft, especially at the top, is tricky in my opinion. For me in Bailey v Bain, the reality is a) short arms don't always matter, there have been guys that make it work but b) the large sample size says that most of the time, they will matter. If Bain turns into, say, an elevated Markus Golden, that's a solid career. But is that what you want at No. 3? Bailey is a smart kid (graduated in three years from Stanford before transferring to Texas Tech) who I believe knows he'll need to max out that athletic ability he has shown. Bain said he's a "monster," and he has been. But you don't want him getting swallowed by big tackles either no matter how violent he can be. For me, I'd need to take a much closer look but off the top of my head, I'd lean Bailey.

I think it might be out of Monti's hands because I think the Jets take one of them. If the Jets go Arvell Reese, however, it'll be a heck of a 7-minute wait. (And that's not even including the consideration of Mauigoa.)

From Sebas Quiros:

"How much do you think positional value plays into drafting? My favorite two players this year for the Cardinals are running back Jeremiyah Love and off-ball linebacker Sonny Styles. Both the best at two positions the Cardinals in my opinion are lacking (Conner is great but getting older, Benson is injury-prone and Mack Wilson can't be alone in the middle). Yet I don't see it possible for Monti and Mike to draft either because of their position. I'm curious in how much does position play compared to other factors. For example, I believe the fall off in talent from Love and Styles to the next best at each position is pretty steep and on the other hand I believe edge and tackle this year are more even in terms of talent so we could go second round with them."

You make excellent points for the Cardinals needed both Love and Styles. But at 3? Positional value does play a role and, in my opinion, especially at 3. I think it's much easier to find someone to run behind Francis Mauigoa than find someone to block for Jeremiyah Love. The Styles question is slightly different; if you *truly* believe Styles can emerge like a Patrick Willis or Luke Kuechly, you have to seriously consider it. But again, it's much harder to find someone who can pressure the passer than play off the ball.

Here's the other issue with waiting. Yes, there is some draft depth at edge (not so sure at offensive line, but I don't know for sure.) But a pass rusher you take at, say, 34, is probably not going to be Bailey or Bain. Otherwise that other guy would go higher. I'm not ruling anything out -- the Cardinals did take first-round off-ball linebackers two years in a row -- but Monti doesn't really operate like that.

From Juli S:

"Darren, love reading the mailbag and your laughs with Wolf! Michael Bidwill is pouring a millions into the new facility in North Scottsdale. Is Michael going to build a new stadium on the land? What a great location."

A couple of clarifications:

  1. It is Phoenix, not Scottsdale. Close but there is a difference.
  2. This is for the business offices and the practice facility, not a stadium. State Farm Stadium remains right where it is in the West Valley. The new performance center will serve as an anchor of a mixed-use area that will eventually have an entertainment area, various business headquarters, and places to live, among other things.

But it is a great location. I wish it was a little closer to where I live, but life goes on.

From Leo A:

"Did we change our fitness coaches/weight coaches. it seems we are injured quite a bit and I am not sure if I am thinking correctly or not. Thanks."

There will be some changes in that department. GM Monti Ossenfort said at the Combine that was happening. But the team has yet to announce what the strength and conditioning staff will be yet.

From Rob Laycock:

"With the top Cardinals free agents being Jalen Thompson and Calais Campbell, is there any chance the Cardinals use the franchise tag on either (more so Thompson)? Or re-signing them without it?"

The Cardinals will not be using either the franchise or transition tag. I don't see Monti being willing to continue a situation in which both safeties are making double-digit millions per season, but we will see on Thompson, As for Campbell, first Calais has to decide if he is going to retire or keep playing. And then it'll be interesting to see if other teams have interest, and what Campbell might want to do if he is on the field in 2026.

From J Turbo:

"I truly think the Rondale Moore sadness should remind us that all professional athletes are people first. Darren I ask can you give us an insight to his personality compared to the interviews we witnessed. I have been following him since his departure. Very sad."

Rondale was an interesting dude. He wasn't a big fan of being interviewed, although he was friendly enough. I think he got frustrated that the offenses he was in couldn't seem to unlock what he could do, and frustrated coaches didn't see him as a downfield wide receiver because of his size. I will say, with how little I knew him, I was surprised this happened. He was so smart. The injuries he suffered were terrible. His body let him down in that regard dating all the way back to his sophomore year of college. But he had so much ahead of him.

From Paul G:

"In my lifetime rooting for the Cardinals, we have only had a handful of playoff-worthy quarterbacks:

  • Hart
  • Lomax
  • Plummer
  • Warner
  • Palmer
  • Murray

Brissett can be categorized with players like Stanton, McCoy, and McCown, solid backups that are effective enough to come in and win a few games for you. Darren, in your opinion, do you think I have placed Kyler or Jacoby in the wrong group? I am worried after Sam Darnold this moving on from a QB is a mistake."

Well, I mean, no, because those QBs all reached the playoffs at least once. Now, are you speaking more comprehensively and less literal when it comes to "playoff-worthy?" Honestly, I understand why people are making connections to Darnold but I think he is a unique situation who was also fortunate to land with teams that had the perfect structure around him both in Minnesota and Seattle. I am not sure who Mike LaFleur is going to have as his QB this season, but I am confident there have been dozens of discussions about every scenario and how they will play out.

From Keith C:

"Hey Darren. Like many, I'm surprised that Nick Rallis was retained despite the defensive issues last year. One conclusion is that JG and Drew were let go partially because they couldn't create an offensive plan where Kyler could flourish. But with the ongoing narrative that Kyler has his likely limitations, he is likely gone too. Also, JG was frustratingly limited in what info he shared. In your opinion which past coach was the most transparent?"

I assume you are asking which coach was most transparent with the media/public? I mean, Bruce Arians was on that list at the top. He didn't have a problem saying what was what. Ever. As defensive coordinator, Ray Horton was similar, and if you go back further -- pre-social media -- Denny Green was blunt with how he talked about the team's performance and individual players.

From Frazier G:

"Hi Darren. REQUEST! Back in the day you used to do a fan Q&A will Steve Keim at the combine. Can you PLEASE bring that back with Monti? We so enjoy it."

Monti has been generous enough to sit down with Dani Sureck in the years he has been here. I could bring up the possibility of fan questions, but I don't see it happening.

From Steve W:

"Hi Darren. What was the final diagnosis on Walter Nolen's knee? Hoping it wasn't an ACL. Follow up: do you know how's he's progressing and any worries about timeline to be back next year?"

We have not gotten an official update, although Nolen's girlfriend, via social media, did say he had a torn meniscus. I do not think he had an ACL problem. We have not heard about any timetables, but I am optimistic it wouldn't be a problem going into the 2026 season. Hopefully we will get more clarity as we hit April.

From Mike Arroyo:

"In regards to the QB position, I keep hearing rumors that the Cardinals are interested in Tyson Bagent and Malik Willis, and I just think to myself why not just stick with Jacoby? With all respect to Tyson and Malik, those aren't long-term franchise guys. Why invest capital into a short-term problem? Bottom line being I don't think any of these names are upgrades on Jacoby. Not to mention Wilson and McBride flourished with Jacoby. Just focus on building up the OL and I promise Jacoby can win you some games."

It's a fair point. I'll say this about speculation -- you don't know what is truth and what isn't, and you don't know at what cost a certain QB might be if they were brought in. I have no idea what Willis' market might be, but we have gone from him getting $25M a year to $30M to maybe $35M and now the reports are maybe more like $20M. And who knows for how long. I think a lot will go into this decision, including how LaFleur and Hackett analyze each QB through their lens.

From Conner Rooney:

"Bleacher Report recently posted a next mega-contracts predictions list, and it was interesting that Paris Johnson Jr. was not on there. I don't think we have any illusions -- he WILL get paid. But the question is two-fold.

  1. When? Will it be early, or will they stretch this into a fifth year or maybe even a sixth (tag)?
  2. How much? There's this frustrating trend in the NFL of becoming the highest paid player at X position, by virtue of the fact you're a young guy, good-enough, and its 'your turn.' Personally drives me crazy but I digress. Do we expect PJJ to briefly become the highest paid LT in the NFL? Or would he settle for a more reasonable amount?"

It's hard to know the second part right now. I would guess that, with Paris still fighting to reach Pro Bowl status, that he likely wouldn't be the highest-paid, but it would be a hefty deal, there is no questioning that. I fully expect them to invoke the fifth-year option, which buys some time if needed, but usually, if you want to keep a guy long-term, the sooner you get the extension the better because the price usually just goes up. If it doesn't, you have bigger problems because it means injury or a drop in play.

What the Cardinals do with extension potential of he and Michael Wilson will be one of the storylines for this offseason.

From Wesley K:

"I will happily respond to Jake Samson on behalf of the Brissettlievers, and I will not support Jacoby by attacking Kyler. Jacoby's virtues speak for themself.

  1. He can SLING it. If we have no run game, you better have a QB who can throw it to all levels 40 times per game; and Jacoby is that guy. And as a sidenote, durability.
  2. You want to box score watch? Fine: 24 TDs, 8 INTs, 64.5 percent completions over 12 games. We did NOT lose because of Jacoby's play.
  3. Patient in the pocket (almost to his detriment). Believe it or not, its actually easier for the OL/WRs/TEs when they know where the QB is.
  4. Ask what Trey McBride and Michael Wilson think about Jacoby. A large reason both Trey and Mike had the amazing seasons they did, is because of their chemistry with Jacoby.
  5. Phenomenal leadership. He's a rah-raw guy who inspires others, when times are hard. And we are in hard times (to quote Dusty Rhodes), so that type of personality is needed.

For the pessimists out there, y'all need to believe (or Brissettlieve) that Jacoby has the ability to be a very, very good QB if you just give him a better OL. His 2025 performance was fantastic, all things considered."

Having the Jacoby-backers emerge in the mailbag has been fun to watch. As I noted above, you have a new coaching staff that needs to figure out what and who they need at QB. Those discussions are happening. You make good points. We will see where this all goes -- unfortunately, they aren't going to be reading the mailbag and taking this in particular into account.

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